WHY IS DIVIDEND SO IMPORTANT? From Dr Neoh Soon Kean’s STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT (Comments by Calvin Tan)
WHY IS DIVIDEND IMPORTANT?
Dividend is important for many reasons. The most important reason has been explained a chapter earlier on, that is, dividend is the only benefit which a shareholder can obtain from a company under the normal circumstances. Profit, per se, is hardly of any use to him directly and the assets are only of value if the company is liquidated which is unlikely in a great majority of cases. Apart from this reason, dividend is important for the following reasons:
1) Dividend is a sure thing.
All too often, investors and speculators pay too much attention to profit forecast. It is amazing that so many malaysian companies have the courage to make profit forecast for many years into the future. What is even more amazing is that so many of the investors seem to believe these forecasts absolutely. It is difficult to make a profit forecast a year ahead, let alone five years or even ten years. Such profit forecasts can only be regarded as extremely shaky.
Let us take a recent example. During 1981, when the “property injection game” was at its height, many of the companies which were first getting into property development business gave very rosy forecasts of future earnings potential, as a result the price of these shares naturally went up to tremendous heights. Since then, the housing market softened considerably and the office rental market has declined 40-50 per cent. In just three years, the profit picture of just about all land development companies has changed considerably. I wonder how many of those forecasts made in 1981 can still stand up to scrutiny today.
Dividend is real and it is something which the shareholders can put to some use. Most companies keep dividend at a level they can afford to pay out irrespective of whether it is a good or bad year and is hence a great deal more certain than profit forecast.
2) Dividend provides a link with reality.
When the market is truly ‘hot’, few of us can keep truly rational and we tend to be swept along in the general atmosphere of optimism. But the dividend yield of a share keeps us in close touch with the real world. As in the earlier example of OCBC, anyone who keeps his eye on the dividend yield of that share would have realised that the price level was totally unreal. Most people would agree that at a dividend yield of 0.4 per cent it would be better to sell a share and invest the proceed in houses or leave the money in fixed deposit.
In the established stock markets of the world, the dividend yield (ie dividend per share/price per share) usually has a steady relationship with the fixed deposit and its interest rate. It is normal for dividend yield to fluctuate at around 1/3 to 1/2 of the long-term deposit interest rate. This means that when fixed deposit interest is around 10 per cent per annum, stock should sell at a price to provide a yield of 3 per cent to 5 per cent. Taking a look at the yield provided by local shares during bull markets, the dividend yield is usually so low as to be meaningless. Futhermore, one should not forget that fixed deposit of 15 months or longer and fixed deposits in National Savings Bank are interest free in Malaysia while dividend has a witholding tax of 40 per cent applied at source.
3) Dividend provides a ‘floor’ for shares during bear markets.
Stock markets of the world, especially the Malaysian/Singaporean market is not readily predictable. They can collapse so easily into a ‘bear pit’ with little warning. If we wished to protect our hard earned capital, we must be defensive in our investment approach. One of the best defense is to buy shares with reasonable dividend yield (i.e. a yield of between 1/2 of deposit interest rate). If we buy a share because it pays a reasonable dividend, our loss is likely to be small even during periods of sharp market decline.
For example, we can buy a share which pays 30 cents dividend at Rm5.00 a share and this gives us a dividend yield of 6 per cent. If the share market goes into a sharp decline, the amount this share can fall to is limited by the fact that it pays a 30 cents dividend. If the price is to fall to as low as Rm3.00, it will be giving a dividend yield of 10 per cent which is about as good as what one can get from fixed deposit but with the additional opportunity to capital gain thrown in.
Most people can see that at that price, the share is probably a good bargain and it is therefore unlikely to fall any lower.It has been my experience that with the exception of mining counters, a dividend yield of 12 per cent seems to be the floor below which most stocks will not drop. In sharp contrast, shares which pay low or no dividend at all do not seem to have any bottom and price decline can hit 90 per cent or more.
4) Dividend yield prevents investors from being side-tracked by irrelevant events.
The Malaysian/Singaporean stock market can be characterised by a large number of events which are of little real benefit to the existing shareholders and yet which excite them greatly. I am referring to the large number of bonus announcements, rights issues, property injections, take-overs, and mergers which have made their appearance in recent years. Most of these events are of little, if any, real economic benefit to the existing shareholders of the companies involved.
Despite this, the price of the shares of a company involved in an event of this nature tends to rise sharply. Later chapters will explain in detail why these events are, in the main, irrelevant and some of them may even be damaging.
For the moment, let us consider the following. According to the dividend yield approach to share valuation, a share can have increased value only if there is a likelihood that its dividend will rise faster than originally expected. We ask ourselves in what way events like bonuses, rights, mergers and re-organisations in themselves can improve the future dividend picture of a company. If these events cannot lead to such an increase, the share surely does not deserve a higher valuation.
It is hoped that readers are, by now, at least partially convinced of the wisdom of buying a share for its dividend. In later chapters, the range of dividend yields which is reasonable for different categories of shares will be examined. In the meantime, I leave you with a short ditty that has been popular for years in the US and is still often quoted as advice to first time share buyers.
A cow for its milk,
Bees for their honey,
And shares, by golly,
For their dividend.
The above passage is taken from the book “STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT” in Malaysia And Singapore
By Dr . Neoh Soon Kean of Dynaquest Sdn Bhd (pp 148 to 150) Published in year 1985.
May I add more to Dr Neoh’s article
5) Great Investor Warren Buffet Invests in SEE’S CANDY for its dividends. SEE’S CANDY 20% DIVIDEND were used to invest in other Great Stocks
At the depth of the subprime Crisis Warren Invested in Goldman’s Preference shares with 10% dividend
This has Made Berkshire Hathaway the best performing fund for the longest length of time
6) MY JOHOR SIFU INVESTS IN DIVIDEND STOCKS BY AVERAGING DOWN HIS COST
(Note: Not averaging down fallen share price but averaging down his holding cost by deducting dividend from capital through the years)
It’s like this
BUYING PIE AT RM1.00 For example. And deduct 15% to 20% dividend every year so
Rm1.00 – 15 sen
Cost 85 sen
Next year dividend 20 sen
So cost drops to 65 sen
Then the third year another 15 sen dividend
So holding cost is 50 sen
(This is only an illustration)
THIS IS HOW HE AVERAGES DOWN HIS HOLDING COST BY DEDUCTING OFF DIVIDENDS
IT FEELS VERY GOOD HOLDING STOCKS THROUGH MANY MANY YEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN BACK ORIGINAL CAPITAL BY WAY OF DIVIDENDS
7) BY BUYING INTO DIVIDEND PAYING SHARES DURING GREAT PANIC TIME WILL SPRING GOOD SURPRISES
Example is buying Pm Corp at bottom of 7.5 sen in a time of panic
Later Pm Corp gave an 8 sen Cash payout
So 7.5 sen – 8 sen equals -5 sen
OR PM CORP IS FREE WITH EXTRA HALF SEN PROFIT
When Pm Corp gave 8 sen Cash Payout we Got back the original capital of 7.5 sen Plus extra half sen free
AND FREE PM CORP SHARES FOR FOREVER
Buying Opcom after Lehman Brothers’ Crisis at 30 sen
Opcom after getting Rm359 Millions Job award from TM gave out a Special Dividend of 22.5 sen
Next year another tax free dividend of 10 sen making it a total of 32.5 sen
SO OPCOM IS NOW FREE FOR FOREVER PLUS 2.5 Sen Extra
THIS IS THE REASON WHY DIVIDEND IS SO IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM WEALTH BUILDING
Now see this
According to Dr. Neoh, “A dividend yield of 12 per cent seems to be the floor below which most stocks will not drop”.
In the Deepest Depth of the Lehman Brothers’ Crisis after Bear Sterns & Lehman Brothers both gone bankrupt Warren Buffet bought into the safety of Goldman Sachs’ Preference shares with guaranteed 10% yield.
Now take heed to Dr. Neoh’s warning, “In sharp contrast, shares which pay low or no dividend at all do not seem to have any bottom and price decline can hit 90 per cent or more”.
The characteristic of past bear markets like the Tulip Mania, The South Sea Bubble, The Great Depression of 1930s in USA, the Stock Market Rout of Asian Finacial Crisis in 1997/8 and The Lehman Brothers’ Debacle of 2007/8 have witnessed many stocks & index crashing up to 90% or more.
SO LISTEN! LISTEN!! LISTEN!!!
Speculative & Non Dividend High Flying Popular Stocks Might Fall by A Whopping 90% During Bad Bear Markets or in a Crisis
- TAANN (5012) 10 YEARS PRICES (LOWEST & HIGHEST PRICES) EPS & DIVIDENDS FROM 2005 to 2015, From STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE Calvin Tan September 10, 2021
- SARAWAK OIL PALM (5126) Why is it in Calvin Tan Research’s Investment Radar? Top 5 Factors You Should Know About SOP Great Potential September 9, 2021
- TSH (9059) TSH now stands for “TELLING SECRET HAPPPILY” What Secrets? Lots of hidden potential, Calvin Tan Research May 21, 2021
- THPLANT (5112) A Look at its Grossly Undervalue Assets & Increasingly Bright Prospects, Calvin Tan Research April 21, 2021
- GREAT SUCESSFUL INVESTMENTS YEAR 2019: OGSE BULL RUN THEME; 2020 MEDICAL GLOVE SUPERBULL THEME: 2021 IS PALM OIL CPO BULL RUN THEME December 31, 2020
- LOOKS LIKE PALM OIL GOING INTO A BULL TREND DUE TO LA LINA AGAIN IN 2020/21 November 24, 2020
- AFTER MEDICAL GLOVE BULL RUN THE NEXT UPCOMING BULL THEME IS PALM OIL November 1, 2020
- 1993 WAS ASIAN TIGER BULLRUN, 2020 IS HEALTH CARE BULL RUN BY COVID 19, GLOVE, FACEMASK & NOW SANITIZER IN NYLEX & ANCOM, Calvin Tan Research May 14, 2020
- PROLEXUS (8966) ProXmask: The ProActive High Quality FACE MASK product of Prolexus that excels , Calvin Tan Research May 6, 2020
- MTAG (0213) MTAG (0231) ANOTHER GLOVES, FACE MASKS & RESPIRATORS DISTRIBUTORS, Calvin Tan Research April 27, 2020
- QUESTION & ANSWERS FOR LUXCHEM April 17, 2020
- PM’s speech on Prihatin Economic Stimulus Package (NFCP FIBERISATION IS ON!!) Calvin Tan Research March 29, 2020
- NETX (0020) INSATIABLE BUYING BY NETX STAFF SHOWS IMMENSE POTENTIAL February 14, 2020
- T7 GLOBAL VERSUS CARIMIN, , UZMA, PENERGY, & DAYANG (Compare & Contrast) Calvin Tan Research January 17, 2020
- TELEKOM TENDERS: SOME POSSIBLE WINNERS, Calvin Tan Research December 29, 2019
- BUY NETX, OPCOM, REDTONE & CMSB (SACOFA) FOR MULTI YEARS BULL RUN IN NFCP STOCKS SOON, Calvin Tan Research November 27, 2019
- T7 WINNING SUBSEA JOBS WILL BE ANOTHER PENERGY FOR TOPSIDE November 22, 2019
- NAIM FIRED UP ON ALL 4 ENGINES BUT CMSB(2852) HAS 7 SEVEN ENGINES OF GROWTH, Calvin Tan Research 22 Nov November 22, 2019
- TOP 10 REASONS WHY NETX IS NOW THE BEST BUY FOR NFCP JUST AS VELESTO WAS FOR OGSE November 17, 2019
- TOP UNDERVALUE SHARES TO BUY NOW FOR 2020 BULL RUN TIME November 16, 2019
- CMSB (2852) OWNER OF KENANGA INVESTMENT BANK , CEMENT MONOPOLY, FIBER OPTIC TOWER MONOPOLY IN SARAWAK November 12, 2019
- THIS IS NOW THE BEST TIME TO DEPLOY MONEY FULLY INTO THE COMING BULL YEAR OF 2020, Calvin Tan Research November 11, 2019
- PLEASE WHATASPP CALVIN TAN AT 019-3384010 Or 014-6101668 FOR NEXT POST November 9, 2019
- NETX MISSION STATEMENT November 9, 2019
- NETX IN CHUN CHUN INTO e-KYC October 30, 2019
- SELL UZMA. SELL CARIMIN. BUY OPCOM, REDTONE, NETX & OTHERS October 28, 2019
- 9th M’sia Plan Top Budget Allocation For Infrar Powered Up Cement So 12 MP For NFCP Powers up Opcom, Redtone & Netx, Calvin Tan October 27, 2019
- WHY IS ASIABIO BUYING ONLY NETX AND NOT DGB, MLAB, XOX, VSOLAR FINTEC & OTHERS? Calvin Tan Research October 26, 2019
- ASIAOBIO BOSS BUYING SO MUCH NETX OVER ALL OTHERS SHOW GREAT POTENTIAL, Calvin Tan Research October 26, 2019
- DIRECTORS/INSIDERS STRONG BUYING SHOWS NFCP BULL RUN VERY SOON, Calvin Tan Research October 21, 2019
- MUI PROPERTY (3913) HIGH VALUE STOCK WITH POWERFUL GROWTH CATALYST, Calvin Tan Research October 18, 2019
- TOP 10 REASONS TO BUY REDTONE (0032) BENEFICIARY OF NFCP OR NATIONWIDE FIBERISATION, Calvin Tan Research October 2, 2019
- NETX HAS A 70/30 FIGHTING CHANCE TO SURVIVE AND DO WELL IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY, Calvin Tan Research September 25, 2019
- SCOMIES, OPCOM & NETX September 23, 2019
- SCOMI ENERGY (7045) THE HIDDEN GEM IN O&G BULL RUN September 19, 2019
- OPCOM (0035) OPTIMAL OPTIC COMPANY : THE SUPER-STOCK OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY, Calvin Tan Research September 16, 2019
- BUY UZMA (7250) AT 62 SEN. TARGET PRICE RM1.20 August 12, 2019
- BUY TA ENTERPRIZE FOR ITS 4.1 SEN DIVIDEND (ABOUT 6% YIELD WHICH IS TWICE THAT OF BANK FD RATE) June 15, 2019
- LAFARGE CEMENT UP 100% FROM RM2.25 TO RM4.50 TODAY. TIME TO BUY MASTEEL (5098) AS IT IS A LAGGARD June 14, 2019
- TESTIMONY OF YTL TO THE POWER OF PROVIDENCE June 8, 2019
- DOLOMITE(5835) UP 143% DUE TO ASSET SALE WILL ASB(1481) GO UP LIKEWISE BY ASSET SALE? June 7, 2019
- INVESTMENT NEWS FOR JUNE 2019 BY EAGLE VISION June 6, 2019
- A LOOK AT PETRONAS LATEST GOOD QUARTER RESULT OF 9% EARNINGS GROWTH, Calvin Tan Research June 1, 2019
- OIL & GAS BULL PAUSE. AFTER THIS POOR QUARTER RESULT DUE TO MONSOON O&G BULL RUN WILL RESUME, Calvin Tan Research May 26, 2019
- UZMA (7250) UTTERLY ZEALOUS MASTERING ALL. THE OnG LAGGARD WITH BEST POTENTIAL, Calvin Tan Research May 10, 2019
- (PART ONE) KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR (5843) KUMPULAN PROACTIVELY SUPERCHARGED, Calvin Tan Research April 25, 2019
- THESE FIVE STOCKS MIGHT BENEFIT FROM ECRL SOUTH: Mui Prop, AsiaPac, MKH, L&G & Olympia, Calvin Tan Research April 17, 2019
- MKH (6114) METRO KAJANG WILL BENEFIT FROM ECRL REROUTE TO BANGI/KAJANG, Calvin Tan Research April 15, 2019
- IMAGO MALL OF ASIAPAC (4057) ECRL SIGNING WILL BRING BACK CHINA TOURISTS, Calvin Tan April 15, 2019
- ASIAPAC (4057) THREE CHUN CHUN BULL TARGETS FOR A 200% UPSIDE (ECRL, VMY 2020 & HSR April 11, 2019
- September 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- August 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015