Eagle Vision Invesment

Hi guys,

I have lived thru 2019 OGSE Superb Bull run theme when Dayang, Carimin, Penergy & Uzma garnered 100% to 583% gain

Carimin up from 21.5 sen to Rm1.47 (Up 583%)

Penergy up from 30 sen to Rm1.68 (Up 460%)

Uzma up from 55 sen to Rm1.10 (Up 100%)

Dayang up from 50 sen to Rm3.01 (Up 502%)

Of course I did not sell at peak prices. For many making 200% to 300% is enough as subsequently prices retraced

Sorry for those who chased Dayang at peak over Rm3.00

 

The adage is true

See

 

DAYANG AT 50 SEN WAS IN LOWEST PESSIMISM

DAYANG OVER RM3.00 WAS IN TOTAL EUPHORIA

AT 50 SEN ALMOST UNIVERSALLY NOBODY WAS INTERESTED WITH DAYANG (LESS THAN 2% INTERESTED: TIME TO BUY)

DAYANG OVER RM3.00 WAS THE HOTTEST STOCK OF YEAR 2019

MORE THAN 90% CHASED DAYANG THEN & LOST THEIR SHIRT TILL NOW

 

2020 IS MEDICAL GLOVE SUPERBULL FOR TOPGLOVE, SUPERMAX, HARTALEGA & KOSSAN. 2 TIER COMFORT, RUBBEREX, CAREPLUS & HLT GLOBAL ALSO JOINED LATER

SO HAPPY TO SEE SUPERMAX GONE UP FROM RM1.73 TO OVER RM20.00 (HIGHEST RM24.44)

OF COURSE I DID NOT SELL AT PEAK (ONLY ABOVE RM18.00 FOR A WHOPPING 1,000% UPSIDE)

SUPERMAX C87 DID EVEN BETTER

BOUGHT AT 34.5 SEN & SOLD AT RM7.00 FOR 2,000% UPSIDE. AMAZING INDEED

SO GOOD INDEED (DON’T CHASE GLOVE NOW. MUST SELL INTO RALLIES & SWITCH TO PALM OIL OR CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL STOCKS LIKE CEMENT)

 

SO THIS IS THE SECRET

EVERY YEAR THERE IS ONE OR TWO THEMATIC BULL THEME

IF WE CAN CATCH IT EARLY & RIDE THE BULL TO ITS PEAK WE WILL DO EXCEEDINGLY WELL

WE WILL BE ABLE TO OUTPERFORM IN A FEW SHORT BULL RUNS AND PERHAPS RETIRE EARLY LIKE PETER LYNCH

 

OF COURSE LIKE WARREN BUFFET MAKING MONEY FROM STOCK MARKET AS A MOTIVE IS LONG OVER

IT IS THE JOY, THE ADVENTURE & THE CONSTANT INTELLECTUAL CHALLENGE IN THE ART OF INVESTMENTS THAT CAUSED HIM TO SAY

“TAP DANCING TO WORK”

 

NOW MY HUMBLE OPINION IS THIS

YEAR 2021 WILL BE PALM OIL “BULL RUN” 

WHY PALM OIL WILL GO INTO A BULL RUN FOR YEAR 2021?

ANSWER:

BECAUSE CPO PRICES NOW REACHING ALL TIME HIGH WILL AMPLIFY PROFITS

AND IF PROFITS KEEP INCREASING IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME COMPANIES WILL INCREASE DIVIDENDS OR REWARD WITH BONUS ISSUES. SO PALM OIL SHARES MUST GO UP AS THIS IS THE LAW

 

See FCPO JANUARY 2021 AT RM3,856

FKLI	Dec 2020	1,650.00	1,639.50	1,646.00	1,641.00	-1.50	1,652.50	1,636.00	10,635	33,705	1,641.00
10	FKLI	Jan 2021	1,652.50	1,643.00	1,657.00	1,644.50	-1.00	1,654.00	1,640.00	5,295	9,703	1,644.50
11	FKLI	Mar 2021	1,649.50	1,620.00	1,668.00	1,637.00	-3.50	1,649.50	1,633.50	57	272	1,639.00
12	FKLI	Jun 2021	1,641.50	1,540.00	1,650.00	1,634.00	-1.50	1,645.00	1,633.00	19	141	1,634.00
13	FCPO	Jan 2021	3,813.00	3,650.00	3,900.00	3,856.00	+50.00	3,877.00	3,813.00	925	6,221	3,854.00
14	FCPO	Feb 2021	3,676.00	3,676.00	3,799.00	3,715.00	+51.00	3,733.00	3,671.00	3,882	30,792	3,715.00
15	FCPO	Mar 2021	3,547.00	3,552.00	3,585.00	3,569.00	+34.00	3,598.00	3,542.00	21,315	65,322	3,569.00
16	FCPO	Apr 2021	3,429.00	3,388.00	3,500.00	3,445.00	+22.00	3,482.00	3,429.00	6,675	27,834	3,447.00

Since cost of CPO production is about Rm1,700 the Profits from All Palm oil stocks for Oct, Nov & December 2020 Qtr will be reported by February 2021. Expected to be good, excellent or exceptional

SO BUY A BASKET OF PALM OIL STOCKS THROUGH FEB 2021 RESULTS

AND IF LA NINA CAUSE SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN TO BE IMPACTED THEN PALM OIL SHARES WILL GO INTO STRONG BULL RUN TILL END 2021

 

NOW ANOTHER UPCOMING INVESTMENT THEME IS CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

Why?

Answer:

Because Govt has approved over Rm300 Billions budget. ECRL Rail & Pan Borneo Highway have both resumed work

Since looking for Construction companies to win job is like looking for needle in a hay stack IT IS MUCH SIMPLER IF WE JUST BUY CEMENT & LONG STEEL STOCKS

No matter which Company will get the Job they must buy CEMENT & Long Steel

Like this

If out of 100 Companies 30 managed to get Infrar jobs then these 30 will still need to buy CEMENT & STEEL

So buying into Companies we get 30% chance out of 100 unless we know for sure which Company will get jobs

ALL THESE 30 COMPANIES MUST BUY CEMENT & LONG STEEL

SO IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THE FEW LONG STEEL PLAYERS AND EVEN FEWER CEMENT PLAYERS WILL BE CERTAIN TO GET MOST SALES

And these are the Cement & Steel Stocks

1. MCEMENT (3794)

Formerly Lafarge Cement. Took over price was Rm3.75. Now at Rm2.50 it is selling at Deep discount to takeover price of Rm3.75

Now that ECRL has rolled out MCEMENT stands to gain the most as it has both cement and aggregates

600 KM Train Tracks Needs lots of Stone aggregates as well as Cement

See

What is it used for

For Ballast

What is ballast?

Ballast is the name for the ‘stones’ beneath the track. This aggregate forms the trackbed and supports the track. It also helps with drainage, so rain water can drain away rather than pooling, and with preventing vegetation growth, which could destabilise the track and be a hazard for anyone working on the railway.

AFTER PM BADAWI ANNOUNCED 9MP (Malaysia Plan) about Heavy Infrar Budget we started to buy Cement companies like TASEK, YTL Cement, CIMA (Cement Industry of Malaya) & Lafarge

It was easy except for Lafarge it was buying in fear

IN YEAR 2006 LAFARGE Was only 66 sen when we started buying. And many people were throwing Lafarge at 66 sen when we were buying. At 66 sen Millions & Millions were Sold & Thrown out

But knowing 9MP Jobs will need lots of Cement we kept buying anyway

Then LAFARGE announed 10 for 3 Consolidation with 20 sen cash pay out

So LAFARGE MERGING WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW RM2.00

FROM THEN ONWARD WITH THE ROLL OUT OF INFRAR JOBS LAFARGE SHARE PRICE TOGETHER WITH ALL OTHERS ROSE IN TANDEM

UEM TOOK CIMA PRIVATE & YTL TOOK YTL CEMENT PRIVATE AND TASEK OFFERED MGO AT RM3.80 BUT REMAIN LISTED

AND ALL THREE GONE UP TO BECOME BLUE CHIP OVER RM10.00 (TASEK EVEN ROSE TO RM16.00. FINALLY RECENTLY HONG LEONG MANAGED TO TAKE TASEK PRIVATE AROUND RM5) CMSB SPLIT BY BONUS ISSUE WHILE LAFARGE RETRACED DUE TO LACK OF INFRAR JOBS

NOW WE ARE SELLING A RETURN OF INFRAR JOBS LIKE ECRL & PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY

LONG STEEL BARS HAVE RUN AHEAD NOW ONLY REMAIN CEMENT LAGGARDS

SO BEST TIME TO TAKE POSITION IN

MCEMENT (ECRL JOB AWARD WINNER) RM270 MILLIONS LOCKED IN

CMSB (MONOPOLY OF PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY) SARAWAK STATE GOVT IS ALSO IN TOP 30 HOLDERS OF CMSB

And if Past Results Rhythm Again then Let Us Look At Lafarge Performance in the Years following 9MP job awards

 

From STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE (March 2015 Edition)

YEAR…….Price Range…………..DPS…………….EPS

2005….1.59….2.61……………….5.9…………..1.3 sen

2006….1.79…..4.18………………5.9…………..17.8 sen

2007….3.62….6.05………………8.8………….33.9

2008….2.28…6.25……………..29.8…………39.8

2009….3.10….6.63…………….30…………….48.5

2010….6.06…..8.11…………..39………………34.8

2011….6.15…..8.02…………..34……………….37

2012…6.62…..10.18………….34……………….41.2

2013….8.25…..11.20…………37………………43.5

2014….7.82…..10.68………..43……………….30.4

2015….9.64…..10.80…………36……………..27.5E

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE YEARLY FIGURES

BEFORE 2006 9MP ROLLOUT LAFARGE ONLY EARNED A MISERABLE 1.3 SEN

AFTER 9MP WAS LAUNCHED LAFARGE STEADITY MADE PROFITS & INCREASED ITS DIVIDENDS YEAR AFTER YEAR TILL BY 2012 LAFARGE CROSSED RM10.00 TO BECOME A BLUE CHIP

By year 2016 All Cement Companies Stepped Up Production plus lack of further Infrar Jobs with Price War all Cement Companies suffered

Now that YTL & SOME OTHER HAVE SCALED BACK PLUS NO MORE PRICE WAR

AND WITH THE COMING GOOD FORTUNE OF ECRL/PAN BORNEO/LRT/MRT REVIVAL DEMAND FOR CEMENT WILL INCREASE

LAFARGE HAS INCREASED ITS CEMENT FROM RM15 TO RM18 PER 50KG BAG AFTER MERGER

AGGREGATES JUST INCREASED BEFORE MCO FROM RM54 TO RM60 (UP 7%)

SO NOW IS THE MOST OPPORTUNE TIME TO REVISIT CEMENT COMPANIES

 

CAN WE HOPE TO SEE MCEMENT & CMSB TO REACH RM10 AGAIN IN ITS GLORY DAYS

NO NEED. A RM5.00 TARGET WILL DO AS UPSIDE ALREADY 100%

BUT IF HIGH SPEED RAIL IS ON? THEN WE CAN EXPECT HIGHER PRICES

 

Best Regards

Calvin Tan Research

Jurong West, Singapore

Please buy or sell after consulting your own Remisier or Fund Manager